The closing price is more important than the opening price. Knowing this can give you a serious advantage over most other traders. I’m going to show you how to pull profits out of this truth like money being spit at you from a broken ATM machine!
Let us just dive right into this.
The closing price reflects the final consensus of value for the day. This is the price most people look at when they get off work or when they print their daily charts at the end of the day. It is especially important in the futures markets, because the settlement of trading accounts depends on it.
Professional traders trade throughout the day. Early in the day they take advantage of opening prices, selling high openings and buying low openings, and then unwinding those positions as the day goes on. Their normal mode of operations is to fade”trade against”market extremes and for the return to normalcy. When prices reach a new high and stall, professionals sell, nudging the market down. When prices stabilize after a fall, they buy, helping the market rally.
The waves of buying and selling by amateurs that hit the market at the opening usually subside as the day goes on. Why? Most traders on the west coast have a day job they have to go to so they log-on in the morning before work, put on a trade, then check it when they get home. Even traders on the east coast will put on a position at market open while at work and then check it at the end of the day. Near the closing time the market is dominated by professional traders.
Knowing this is a huge advantage! Why? Because it means that closing prices reflect the opinions of professionals. Look at any chart, and you will see how often the opening and closing ticks are at the opposite ends of a price bar. This is because amateurs and professionals tend to be on the opposite sides of trades. You want to trade with the professionals, not against them.
You should consider closing out your long position if the stock you are trading opens and then goes up near its day’s high but drops the rest of the day and closes near its day’s low. What this tells you is that professionals are fading against your position and so you need to get out.