Most economists around the world believe that US will eventually be on a recession. Almost every indicator in the country points to it. The chances that the US might slip into another recession are 25-30 per cent, Alan Greespan, reputable economist and former chairman of US Federal Reserve said as early as mid-last year, adding that the only possibility to reduce the double-dip recession probability was the recovery in asset base, in other words rising asset prices. This was a couple of months after criticism against Wall Street analysts fearing more the risk of inflation than another recession.
President Barack Obama a week ago has warned that the United States may face another recession if the Congress fails to raise the current debt ceiling. In the President’s opinion, this could be a “worse recession” and a “worse financial crisis” than before, unless the debt ceiling is pushed up before it hits its limit of $14.29 trillion, Reuters quoted Obama as saying in a pre-recorded interview broadcast by CBS News. The debt ceiling is set by the Congress and is the statutory limit imposed on the amount of money the US Treasury Department can borrow; if nothing is done by about August 2, the threat is that the government might default on its debt payment. This will most likely drive up interest rates, push down household wealth and cause a double-dip recession. The decision will be a hard one, as negotiations will be slowed down by Congressional Republicans as long as they tie their debt ceiling decision to spending cuts as part of the deficit-reduction measures they favor.
According to many voices, this is the worst possible time to cut public spending or reduce the money supply, as consumer spending in the US has slowed down lately. The most significant economic news from the first quarter of 2011 is the decline in real wages, with millions of Americans accepting shrinking paychecks. Moreover, the value of the biggest asset most people own - their homes - is sharply declining as well. And what do we get? Consumers who are no longer able to buy enough to keep the economy going. Since food and energy prices go up, people will consume less by the fact of paying more for food and at the gas pump. And they will probably pay even more in the rest of the economy, as the dollar is decreasing and imported goods become more expensive. This spells recession.
At the same time, one aspect that should not be ignored is that the difficult economic situation in Europe will also be a source of distress for the US economy. Europe has already started to cut its imports from the USA as it implements bailout policies. Moreover, Europe will have eventually to send out its export to the USA to extricate from the crisis. To top it all, China’s economy is a matter of concern these days. If and when the bubble on the Chinese real estate market bursts, the government will most likely take measures to export its goods to the USA. The warning is crystal clear and comes from Russian analysts: if governments do nothing but sit on their hands, the global economy will suffer from a third tremendous depression during the recent 150 years.
The prices of precious metals will most probably soar because of these recent unofficial statistics pointing to a double-dip US recession, the collapse of the bond market and hyperinflation and inducing panic into the precious metals’ market. And this is a good indicator for the economy, considering that when the price of precious metals (primarily gold) is high, the economy is usually either in crisis or inflation. When the economy and the stock market are healthy, the gold prices are low. Hence, recent trends in precious metals can tell a lot about economic developments and investment opportunities. Stay connected to the latest events in economy and precious metals with Gold Price News.