Posts Tagged ‘ poker ’

 
Monday, August 17th, 2009

In forex trading, stop loss execution policy is somewhat different than in equity trading. If the broker bid price reaches your stop loss order rate, stop loss orders to sell are triggered. Suppose, your stop loss order to sell is 1.2540! The brokers lowest price quote is 1.2540/1.2543. Your stop loss order will be executed. Almost the same goes for buy orders.

Most of the forex brokers will never guarantee stop losses around the release of economic reports. The benefit of this practice is that some brokers will guarantee against slippage on your stop loss order under normal trading conditions. The downside of this is that your stop loss order will be executed earlier. So you will have to add in extra cushion when placing them on your forex trading platform.

One-Cancels-the-Other Orders: A one cancels the other order is usually abbreviated as OCO order. A one cancels the other order is a stop loss order paired with a take profit order. Until one of the order levels is reached by the market and closes your position, your position stays open. An OCO order is the ultimate insurance policy for any open position! When one order level is reached and triggered, the other order is automatically cancelled.

OCO orders are highly recommended for every open position. Lets make it clear with an example. Suppose you are short USD/JPY at 120.00. You think that if it goes up beyond 120.00, its going to keep going higher. Thats where you decide to put your stop loss buying order.

You place your take profit buying order at 118.50 as you believe that USD/JPY has downside potential to 118.50. As long as the market trades between 120.00 and 118.50, your position remains open. Your risk is clearly defined. You now have two orders bracketing the market. Suppose USD/JPY 118.50 price level is reached first, your take profit order is triggered and you buy back at a profit. However, suppose USD/JPY 120.00 price level is hit first, your position is stopped out at a loss.

Contingent Orders: A contingent order is an order where you combine several types of orders to create a complete currency trading strategy. Contingent orders are also referred to as if/then orders. If/then orders require the If order to be done first. Only then the second part of the order becomes active. So they are sometimes also called If done/then orders.

The key feature of most forex broker order policies is that your order is only filled based on the price spread of the trading platform. That means that your limit order is only executed if the trading platform offer rate reaches your buy rate. Similarly, a limit order is only executed if the trading platform bid price reaches your sell rate.

Suppose you have a buy order to sell GBP/USD at 1.2655. Your brokers spread on GBP/USD pair is 4 pips. If the trading platform price is 1.2655/1.2659, your buy order will be filled. If the lowest price is 1.2652/1.2656, the limit order will not be filled as the brokers lowest rate of 1.2655 does not match your buy rate of 1.2656. Almost the same thing happens with limit orders to sell.

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Sunday, August 16th, 2009

Stop Loss Orders: If you dont use stop loss orders, you are leaving yourself at the mercy of the markets. A dangerous proposition with unlimited downside risk! Stop loss orders are critical to your trading survival. If the market moves against your position, stop loss orders are used to limit losses. The traditional stop loss order does just that. It stops losses by closing out an open position that is losing money.

If you are short, your stop loss order would be to buy but at a higher price than the current market price. Stop loss orders are on the other side of the take profit orders but in the same direction. If you are long, your stop loss order would be to sell but at a lower price than the current market price.

Trailing Stop Loss Orders: The trailing stop order adjusts the order rate as the market price moves but only in the direction of your trade. A trailing stop loss order is a stop loss order that you set at a fixed number of pips from your entry rate.

Suppose you are long on EUR/GBP at 1.2654. You set the trailing stop loss at 30 pips. The stop order will become active at (1.2654-30=) 1.2624 initially. As the market moves higher, the trailing stop loss order continues to adjust itself higher. Suppose the EUR/USD rate goes up to 1.2674, the stop adjusts itself. Now the stop order will become active at 1.244.

When the market puts in the top, your trailing stop will be 30 pips below the top. If the market ever goes down by 30 pips, the trailing stop loss order will be triggered and your open position closed. So in our example, you are long at 1.2654. You set the trailing stop loss at 30 pips and it became active at 1.2624.

Suppose the market never ticks up and instead the market goes straight down. You will be stopped out at 1.2624. Instead suppose the market first rises to 1.2664. Then the market declines 40 pips. Your trailing stop loss order will first rise to (1.2664-30=) 1.2634. It is at 1.2634 that you would be stopped out now.

You must have heard the saying: Cut your losses and let your winners run. A trailing stop loss order allows you to do just that. The idea is that when you have a winning trade on, you wait for the market to stage for a reversal and take you out of your trade by using the trailing stop loss order instead of picking the right level to exit on your own.

Using stop loss orders is critical in trading as it helps you in money and risk management. Trading without the stop loss orders is foolish! Never ever do that! So the key to successful trading is to cut losing positions quickly and let winning positions run. This is what a trailing stop loss order does. It helps your winners run and cuts your losses.

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Saturday, August 15th, 2009

Just to remind you that forex markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week. A market move is just likely to happen while you are asleep or in the shower as while you are sitting in front of your computer screen. Currency traders use market orders to catch market movements when they are not in front of their screens.

There are many types of market orders. Proper use of market orders is very critical to your trading success. You should think of the different types of market orders as trades waiting to happen. You are in the market so be as careful as possible while playing with the market orders if you enter an order and the subsequent price action triggers its execution. Trading can be very difficult without these market orders.

Experienced currency traders routinely use orders to implement a trade strategy from entry to exit, capture sharp short term price fluctuations, limit risk in volatile or uncertain markets and preserve trading capital from unwanted loss. Market orders are essential for maintaining trading discipline.

Currency markets can be notoriously volatile and difficult to predict. There can be sudden price swings. Using market orders can help you capitalize on short term price movements while limiting the impact of any adverse price movements.

If you dont use market orders, you probably dont have a well thought out trading plan. While there is no guarantee that the use of market orders will limit your losses and protect your profits in all market conditions, a disciplined use of market orders will help you quantify the risk that you are taking. It will also give you the peace of mind in trading.

Different types of market orders are available in currency markets to forex traders. When you open an account with a forex broker, you should add the market orders to the list of questions you need to ask the broker because you should know that not all market orders are available at all online forex brokers.

Take Profit Orders: Use the take profit order to lock in profits when you have an open position in the market. An old market saying, You cant go broke taking profits. If you are long EUR/USD at 1.2845, your take profit order will be to sell the position somewhere higher close to 1.2875. Suppose you are short GBP/USD at 1.2354. Your take profit order will be to buy back the position and be place somewhere below 1.2334. Making you a profit of 20 pips!

Limit Orders: Dont forget the saying, Buy low and sell high. A limit order is any market order that triggers a trade at more favorable levels than the current market price. The limit order must be placed somewhere above the current market price if the limit order is to sell. The limit order must be entered somewhere below the current market price if the order is to sell.

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Friday, August 14th, 2009

Cross currency pairs are as important as the major currency pairs that involve USD on either side of the transaction. The most active traded crosses focus on the three non USD currencies namely EUR, GBP and JPY. These crosses are known as the euro crosses, sterling crosses and the yen crosses. The most actively traded cross currency pairs are: EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/CHF, and NZD/JPY. Sometimes you will find more action in the cross currency pairs. Crosses enable currency traders to directly target trades to specific individual currencies to take advantage of news or events.

You may notice that the currencies are combined in a seemingly strange way when you look up at the currency pairs. For instance, if sterling-yen (GBP/JPY) is a yen cross, why it is not being also referred to as yen-sterling (JPY/GBP)? The answer is that those quoting conventions were evolved over the years. These conventions have been designed to reflect traditionally strong currencies versus traditionally weak currencies with the strong currency coming first.

The most basic convention that you need to understand is that the first currency in the currency pair is known as the base currency. For example in EUR/JPY, Euro is the base currency. Suppose you buy or sell a currency pair. It is the base currency that you are buying or selling when you buy or sell a currency pair. The second currency in the pair is known as the counter or secondary currency. In the above currency pair, Japanese Yen (JPY) is the counter or secondary currency. So if you buy 100,000 EUR/USD. You have just bought 100,000 Euros and sold the equivalent amount in dollars.

So currency trading involves simultaneously buying and selling. Going long in currency trading means having bough a currency pair! When you are long, you are looking for the prices to go higher. So you can sell at a higher price that where you bought.

Going short in currency trading means selling a currency pair! It means that you have sold the currency pair, meaning you have sold the base currency and bought the counter currency. In currency trading going short is as common as going long.

Selling high and buying low is the standard currency trading strategy. Having no position in the market is known as being square or flat. If you have an open position and you want to close it, its called squaring up. If you are short, you need to buy to square up. If you are long, you need to sell to go flat.

When you open an online currency trading account, you will need to pony up cash as collateral to support the margin requirements established by your broker. A clear understanding of how P&L works is especially critical to online margin trading. Profit and Loss is how traders measure success and failure.

Profit and Loss calculations are pretty straight forward and are based on position size and the number of pips you make or lose. A pip is the smallest increment of price fluctuation in currency pairs. Pips are also referred to as points. Most of the currency pairs are quoted up to four decimal places. Suppose EUR/USD quote is 1.2853. If the price moves from 1.2853 to 1.2873, it has gone up by 20 pips. Pip is the increase or decrease in the fourth decimal digit.

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Thursday, August 13th, 2009

Currency trading is the name of the game right now. Currency trading is being called the Recession Proof Business of the 21st Century. The currency market is the crossroads for international capital, the intersection through which the global commercial and investment flows have to move. We like to think of the currency market as the, Big Kahuna of the financial markets. Currency Market is the most traded financial markets in the world.

Currency market is open around the clock six days a week, enabling currency traders to act on news and events as they happen. More than anything else, the currency market is the traders market. Its a market where a billion dollar of trades can be executed in a matter of seconds. Huge currency transactions may not even move the prices noticeably.

By far the vast majority of currency trading volume is based on speculation. Most of the people dabble in currency for pure speculation. It is the lure of making quick capital gains that attract most of the investors towards currency trading. While commercial and financial transactions in the currency markets represent huge nominal sums, they still pale in comparison to the amount spend on speculation.

The depth and breadth of the speculative market means that the liquidity of the overall currency market is unparalleled among global financial markets. Estimates are that upwards of 90% of the daily trading volume is derived from speculation. It means that commercial or investment based currency trades account for less than 10% of the daily global volume.

If you are new to currency trading, the mechanics and terminology may take some getting used to. Currency trading has its own set of trading lingo just like any financial market. The biggest mental hurdle facing newcomers to currency trading especially those traders coming from other markets are getting there head around the idea that each currency trade consists of a simultaneous sale and purchase.

For example, in the stock market, you own only 100 shares and want to see the price go up if you purchase 100 shares of Google (GOOG). You simply sell your 100 shares when you want to exit. But in currencies, the purchase of one currency involves the simultaneous sale of another currency.

This is the exchange in the foreign exchange. Currency markets refer to trading currencies by pairs to make matters easier. So currencies come in pairs. The major currency pairs all involve the US Dollar on one side of the deal. All most all currency pairs have nicknames or abbreviations.

The most frequently traded currency pairs in the currency market are: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD, USD/CAD, UAD/USD, and NZD/USD. Rest of the currency pairs dont have the volume that these pairs have. The designation of each currency is expressed using ISO codes for each currency.

Although the vast majority of currency trading takes place in the dollar pairs, cross currency pairs serve as the alternative to always trading the US Dollar. A cross currency pair or a cross is any currency pair that does not include the US Dollar. Cross rates are derived from the respective USD pairs but are quoted independently.

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Wednesday, August 12th, 2009

Hanging Man & the Hammer: The hammer or the hanging man is identified by the small candle that appears at the very top of the pattern! There is usually a pretty long wick at the bottom. If you see this pattern at the bottom of a downtrend, you are looking at a hammer. If it appears at the top of the uptrend, it is considered a hanging man.

If you think you have a hanging man appearing in an uptrend, you wouldnt trade on it unless it is confirmed the next day with an opening price lower than the previous close. Similarly, if a hammer appears in a downtrend, you wouldnt trade on it if the opening price on the next trading day is higher than the hammers close.

Double stick patterns depend on two days. The first day is called the set up day. The second day is called the signal day. If you put in the time and effort to monitor them, these patterns can be very powerful and profitable. Compared to single stick patterns, double stick patterns are difficult to come by and rarely appear.

Engulfing Pattern: Engulfing candlestick pattern can be bullish or bearish! The name comes from the fact that the signal day engulfs the pattern day. Both the wick and the body of the second day completely cover the same ground as the first day. The first double candlestick pattern is the bullish engulfing pattern. The setup day candle should be bearish. The signal day candle should be bullish bigger than the last day bearish candle. Likewise the bearish engulfing pattern signals the end of an uptrend.

Harami: A Harami is a two day pattern with the candle of the setup day than the candle of the signal day. Harami pattern can also be bullish or bearish. In case of a bullish Harami, the first day is very bearish and occurring in a downtrend. However, on the second day bulls take over. This signals reversals of a downtrend that culminated in a downtrend. Likewise, a bearish Harami signals end of an uptrend.

Bullish Harami Cross: Bullish Harami Cross is a special variant of the Harami. It involves a Doji pattern and should always be considered an indicator of the potential reversal. Bullish Harami Cross appears during a downtrend. Its setup date is a black long candle. Its signal day is a Doji.

Inverted Hammer: A bullish inverted hammer pattern occurs in a downtrend. The first day is a bearish candle. The signal day is an inverted hammer. The inverted hammer is a fairly rare pattern. Inverted hammer can be bullish or bearish.

Doji Star: A Doji Star candlestick pattern can be bullish or bearish. The bullish doji star is very similar to a bullish inverted hammer. It occurs in a downtrend. It signals that the bulls have had enough. A bullish doji pattern is a two day pattern. The doji appearing on the signal day during a downtrend! Likewise, a bearish doji star indicates end of an uptrend.

Meeting Line: This pattern is another signal that a trend reversal is about to take place. In case of a bullish meeting line, the setup day is a long black candle and the signal day is a long white candle.

Bullish Piercing Line: The bullish piercing line consists of a long black candle on the setup day followed by a long white candle on the signal day. The open of the signal day should be lower than the low of the setup day.

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Tuesday, August 11th, 2009

The Bearish Gravestone Doji: A Doji is created when the opening and closing prices of the day are the same. However, when the opening and closing prices of the day are equal to the low of the day, the most bearish of Doji, the Gravestone Doji is formed.

Some extremely useful single stick patterns rely heavily on their location on a chart. Not all single stick patterns are straightforward. Some single stick patterns that have been discussed earlier were most basic and easy to identify.

If you can spot them in the right market environment, a variety of single stick patterns can provide some terrific trading opportunities. Make yourself familiar with these candlestick patterns. Learn how to identify them. Trading based on them is another way that you can add a versatile weapon to your trading arsenal.

We have talked about Dojis. Dojis are often associated with the reversal of the trend and can serve as outstanding reversal indicators. If a Doji appears in an uptrend, it could very well indicate that the trend maybe changing to a downtrend soon especially if it is a Gravestone Doji. Similarly for a downtrend!

The Long Legged Doji: A long legged Doji features a small stick with very long wicks on either side. The small candle on a long legged Doji is normally located very close to the center of the candlestick.

The long legged Doji indicates that there was a lot of uncertainty in the market after a period of directional certainty and this change of conviction often results in the change of trend. When appearing in an uptrend or a downtrend, a long legged Doji is considered a reversal signal.

The Spinning Top: A spinning top is formed when a candlestick has a small body. It has wicks stick out on both ends. The wicks should also be as wide as the candle section of the candlestick. The body of the candlestick should appear to the center of the range of the days price action.

Like Doji, the spinning top is another pattern that depends on the market context and reveals a tight battle between the bulls and the bears. Whenever, there is a close battle between the bulls and the bears, eventually one side have to give in. When this happens, an explosive move in one direction is possible.

However, like Dojis, the spinning tops are nice indicators that the trend is about to end and reverse itself. The spinning tops make frequent appearances. Dojis appear very rarely.

Belt Holds: There are two types of belt holds: bullish and bearish. Bullish belt hold features an open equal to the low and a close near the high which leaves a small wick near the top of the candle.

Belt holds also depend on market context. Belt hold candlestick patterns are excellent trend reversal signals. Bearish belt holds candlestick patterns on the other hand opens on their highs and close near their lows. Bearish belt hold has a small wick near the bottom of the candle.

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Monday, August 10th, 2009

Unless you understand Candlestick charting, you cant trade and invest effectively in securities or currencies. It is essential that you understand Candlestick charting. Many options exist for the charting of currencies and securities now with the advancement of technology. There are several types of charts easily available on the charting software. The four main charting methods are: 1) Candlestick charts, 2) Line Charts, 3) Point and Figure Charts and 4) Bar Charts.

For a number of reasons, the three charting methods pale in comparison with the candlestick charting. With a simple glance on the candlestick charts you can understand whats going on with the price of a currency pair. One of the best features of candlestick charting is its visual appeal and readability.

You can get a sense of how the price is trending with the candlestick charts. You can easily spot the opening and closing price of a currency pair on a candlestick charts. You can also tell whether the buyers or sellers have dominated a given day. These price levels can be an important area of support and resistance for a given day.

Candlestick charts also feature specific patterns that you can identify and use to decide when its best time to buy, sell or wait on a trade. Why should traders choose candlestick charts over other types of charts when analyzing price action of currency markets?

Trading is becoming more and more complex. The need for a consistent and dynamic charting method is more important than ever. Traders need easy to read charts that allow them to make quick decisions and efficiently analyze patterns. Candlestick charting offers those benefits and many more. The following four pieces of information are combined to make a candlestick:

Opening Price: The first piece of information used to create a candlestick is the price at which a particular currency pair opens on a given period.

High Price: The highest price reached during that given period corresponds to the top of the candlesticks wick.

Low Price: The lowest price that a currency pair reaches during a period corresponds to the bottom of the candlesticks wick.

Closing Price: The closing price of the currency pair at the end of a given period is the last piece of information used to create a candlestick.

You can gain far more insight into a periods trading by looking at the candlestick than you can by looking at another type of charting tool. Candlesticks that represent bullish price action appear white on the chart. Candlesticks that represent bearish price action appear black.

You can tell right away with a visual glance on the candlestick chart that the up day has a white candle. Similarly the down day has a black candle. That simple difference alone clearly reveals the nature of price action that took place during that period. These types of clues can be very helpful to you.

Candlestick charts quickly clue you on the type of buying and selling thats been going on during a given period. Candlestick charting also tell you where it may occur again. In many cases, the buyers continue to buy and sellers continue to sell during subsequent periods.

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Sunday, August 9th, 2009

Most candlestick patterns are valid based only on the market activity of the previous few days. For instance, some of the candlestick patterns indicate a change in trend. Using one of these without knowing about the previous trends wouldnt be very useful.

Usually the context in which you find the candlestick pattern tells you a great deal about what you should do based on that candlestick pattern. Lets consider simple candlestick patterns first.

The Bullish White Marubozu: The longest white candle is the most bullish of the candlestick patterns. It represents the day when bulls control the market and push prices higher from the opening to the closing. With the long white candle closing near the high, chances are the bulls will be back for more buying the following day.

This means that buying has been taking place all the day. The low price on the candlestick is a good support level with the long white candle. One common feature of the long white candle is an opening price near the low of the day and a closing price near the high of the day.

The Bullish Dragonfly Doji: For a Doji to be created, a day must begin and end with the same price. A Doji is formed when the opening and the closing prices are the same. So essentially there is no stick in the candlestick.

Doji patterns are usually associated with a market turn. A Doji may not look very exciting to you. But dont be fooled. Doji depicts a day where the battle between the bulls and the bears has been fairly equal. A market turn is highly likely the next trading day.

For those hoping that prices go higher, the price action depicted by the Dragonfly Doji bodes very well. A Dragonfly Doji is unique in that three of the four candlestick patterns- the open, high and the close are all equal. The low of the Dragonfly Doji day is considered a near term support level. You can make smart trades based on the Dragonfly Dojis.

The Bearish Long Black Candle: The long black candle is the direct counterpart of the long white candle discussed earlier. The long black candle is as bearish as it gets. It means that sellers take over at the beginning of the day and push prices lower and lower until the end of the day.

These sellers are selling just to get out of their trades. Price sensitivity is very low for these sellers. Seeing this type of enthusiastic selling must give you the confidence that the bears will be in control for a few more days after the appearance of the long black candle. You can capitalize on this fact. The long black candlestick pattern is a good bearish signal.

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Saturday, August 8th, 2009

If you want to detect a trend reversal breakout, you can identify it through the MACD divergence signals. When you spot a potential breakout scenario on a currency pair chart, you should look at how the MACD histogram is performing.

If the currency pair has been making new highs, is the MACD histogram also forming higher peaks? If it is so, you can safely assume that the uptrend is likely to continue and any breakout to the downside will be short lived and probably false.

However, suppose the MACD histogram shows a bearish divergence. This is a strong signal that a downside breakout is more likely to be sustained than false. The reverse holds true for a bullish MACD divergence. In case of a bullish MACD divergence, the chances are high for an upside breakout.

However, MACD divergence signal seldom occurs. But you should immediately take note when it makes an appearance. It is a strong signal for a trend reversal. Another momentum indicator that can help you anticipate when the prices are at the verge of breaking out is the RSI. You can use both for confirming a trend reversal.

RSI stands for the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI measures the relative changes between the higher and lower closing prices over a period of time. A reading of 30 or lower indicates that the currency pair is oversold. A reading of 70 and above indicates that the currency pair is overbought.

However, an uptrend could register a prolonged period of overbought conditions whereas a downtrend could register a prolonged period of oversold conditions. The most useful way of applying RSI is through its divergence signals.

Like MACD, bullish divergence occurs when a currency pair declines to a new low but the RSI makes a higher low. A bearish divergence appears when the currency pair rallies to a new high but RSI makes a lower high instead.

For the breakout trading strategy, using momentum indicators like MACD and RSI can sometimes provide clues to internal trend weaknesses since momentum proceeds price change. However, remember that it is very difficult to predict with 100% accuracy the success of a breakout.

Trading breakout can be a very profitable strategy if it is applied sensibly after thorough analysis. Detail technical analysis of the current and past price action must be carried out in order to tilt the odds of success in your favor before implementing the breakout trading strategy.

Breakouts frequently occur along trendlines. A trendline breakout could signal a reversal or continuation of trend. Price breakouts may be triggered by sudden forex related news or comments or unexpected geopolitical events. In case of a trend continuation, this break may indicate a temporary interruption in the prevailing trend or signal that the trend will continue but at a slower pace.

Trading channel breakout is a very profitable strategy among the currency traders. A channel basically consists of two parallel trendlines which can be drawn to encapsulate the price action. You can view the price action taking place between the support and the resistance as forming a channel.

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