Coffee has always been one of investor’s favorite options for ETFs, but they aren’t speaking about Starbucks; they are talking about investing in the commodity. The commodity depends mostly on climate and supply and demand factors, while Starbucks depends on other factors that cannot be foreseen or studied as accurately. The focus of this article concerns investing in coffee, the commodity.
Changes in the Chinese and European markets have caused coffee prices to rise and fall wildly lately. After some time the price has become stable and it has based at 320 where it is holding. The market and the players have shown their cards and the market is soon to rise. Changes for the better in the middle class economy permit them to visit with their friends and drink more coffee.
The Chinese market has multiplied over the past years adding pressure to the market by increasing 10% to 15% every year. In 2006 they were buying 46,000 tons, in 2010 they bought almost 80,000 tons, and they have almost doubled their consumption in five years. Soon they will be the second greatest coffee buyers in the world. This combined with the improvement in the European market points to a rise in prices.
Since the price has based at 320, it is convenient to wait a bit until it starts to rise. Once it does, buy long term in thirds keeping a 20% to 25% stop loss. The ETFs are not leveraged so any abrupt change will not cause major damages. The medium term market would be positive too but it is not steady or strong enough and any climate change could make it drop. Long term is the best option.
Additional factors that affect the price of coffee is weather conditions and harvest levels in Central and South America. Changes in these regions point towards a steady rise in prices over the long term. The reduction in supply along with added consumption in China and the European markets is supporting the price of coffee at high levels. A leveling off of the economy is starting to level off coffee demand. Once it starts to rise it will continue steadily upward pushed by the market, especially if demand increase and supply decreases, as is expected.
Weather patterns before and during the harvest period in Central and South American countries lead to a rise in prices too. Since it has leveled off for some time now and the market is being pressured by new buyers and larger purchases long term purchases of coffee ETFs are an excellent option to make a nice profit.